Why the Sooners Will Win...
...the 2011 gameIt has been a season of ups and downs for the Oklahoma Sooners. After a preseason #1 ranking, they started 6-0, picking up big wins over Florida State and Texas. But the bottom fell out with an upset loss at home to Texas Tech, a crushing blow that ended the nation's longest home winning streak. Just after OU looked to be back on track with wins over Kansas State and A&M, it was upset again, this time the school's first ever loss to Baylor.
Though the losses were inexplicable, the Sooners never seemed to hang their heads too long. Each time, they went back to work and rebounded. Plus, if the rest of the season is any indication, Oklahoma has nothing to fear against a top opponent, only the ones they are supposed to beat.
Overall, there's a "been there, done that" mentality for this Oklahoma team. In 2009, they blanked a higher-ranked Oklahoma State team. Then last year, few gave them a chance against the Cowboys in Stillwater, but Landry Jones and the Sooners took care of business, dashing Oklahoma State's Big 12 title hopes. This year, with OSU still looking at a possible national championship berth, OU can dash even higher hopes. It seems clear to see from the outside that, regardless of talent, Oklahoma has some kind of psychological edge against Oklahoma State, in Stillwater or otherwise.
As for the x's and o's, it's easy to expect a shoot-out. Both offenses have had their moments of looking unstoppable, and despite the injuries, Oklahoma has plenty of playmakers to keep pace, guys like Roy Finch, Kenny Stills and Jaz Reynolds. So the question is whether the OU defense can slow a powerful Cowboy attack of Weeden to Blackmon, something few teams have been able to do. In contrast to some teams OSU has faced, the Sooners have the ability to rattle Weeden with pressure with a stout group of pass-rushers. And OU has the corner play to at least hold Blackmon from having a huge day.
Put all that together, and it spells disaster for the Cowboys.
Why the Cowboys Will Win...
...the 2011 gameIt has been the best season in history for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, an emotionally difficult, double overtime loss on the road at Iowa State the only thing keeping them from an unblemished record and a trip to college football's greatest promised land. The most important thing to remember as it applies to this game, though, is that the season can get even better. Upsets have created a situation where the national title game is still within OSU's reach, and a win over OU gives the Cowboys their first ever Big 12 Championship. That's a heck of a motivator.
Then, there's the issue of home field advantage. Yes, Oklahoma State has lost the last couple to Oklahoma in Stillwater, but that doesn't change the fact that the fan base is rabid and the stadium is raucous, a tough place to play. The Cowboys defense has capitalized on turnovers all season long, leading the nation in takeaways, and the orange and black-clad, hostile environment can help create the confusion and mistakes that will lead to a couple more.
On the field, Oklahoma State is so balanced, very rarely stopped. Against Texas A&M, it seemed just a matter of time before they "flipped the switch." Against Iowa State, only their own mistakes really slowed them. Brandon Weeden is mature, experienced and talented. He rarely gets flustered and has a stable of weapons, in particular the superstar and future NFL 1st round pick at wide receiver, Justin Blackmon. It's a type of explosiveness that can get downright scary for an OU defense that has given up huge yardage against effective passing teams. Frank Alexander is a talented pass-rusher for Oklahoma, but Ronnell Lewis is hurt, and just about the time the Sooners start blitzing, Joseph Randle will hit the lane for a long run.
Really, the only question for OSU is whether they can play some defense. They improve each year, but the defense has long been the issue for the Cowboys. In 2011, in a bend-but-don't-break style, they have given up yards but not points, waiting for you to make a mistake. Without Ryan Broyles or Dominique Whaley, Oklahoma may press, and that leads to turnovers.
Put all that together, and it spells disaster for the Sooners.
Outcome
Now you have the breakdown of what could happen. How about what will happen...? Here's my prediction:
It seems clear that Oklahoma State has the superior offense, more balanced and more consistent. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has the better defense. Yes, there have been breakdowns, but performances against Texas and Florida State show just how dominant they can be. The Cowboys have the home field advantage, but the Sooners have the confident mindset of playing against what they consider to be a "little brother." So what are the keys to who wins?
For me, it comes down to two things, both of which are in favor of Oklahoma State.
1. Injuries: It's disappointing, as regardless of which side one is on, we all want to see a good game, each at their best. But when handicapping the game, you can't ignore the star power and production lost to injury for the Oklahoma Sooners. Ryan Broyles, Dominique Whaley and Ronnell Lewis were all difference-makers, and while Oklahoma has talent behind them, you don't simply replace guys of that caliber easily. On the other hand, Oklahoma State comes into the game virtually injury-free, with a bye week to heal up some scrapes and bruises.
2. Turnovers: Oklahoma started the season in good position with turnover margin, but the 2nd half has not been kind. They lost the turnover battle in both losses and managed to win a couple of games despite turning the ball over multiple times. Everyone always says, "You can't do that against a great team and still win." Well, Oklahoma State is a great team. Not only that, but they're a team that leads the nation in takeaways. It's not a fluke, and I expect turnovers to be a factor in the outcome, one or two from OU turning into difference-making points.
Oklahoma State 38, Oklahoma 28
