Why the Sooners Will Win...
...the 2008 gameAfter a Big 12 Championship in 2007, the Oklahoma Sooners have been a top 5 team during the entire 2008 season. Sam Bradford's emergence as one of the best quarterbacks in the nation and a bevy of weapons on offensve have made them a season-long National Championship contender, despite an early season loss to Texas. The Sooners have rolled their opposition this season, never scoring fewer than 35 points and scoring more than 50 six times. Non-conference blowout wins over TCU and Cincinnati say quite a bit about the Sooners because both of those teams are doing well, and the Oklahoma offense is considered one of, if not the, best in the nation.
With only the loss to Texas, much is still left to be determined for Oklahoma. They welcome Texas Tech to Norman on November 22nd and finish their regular season in Bedlam the following week. Winning out could put them in the Big 12 Championship game, where a victory spells national title chance. Oklahoma State doesn't have the same championship motivation, and it will be big for the Sooners. In addition, the blowout win for Oklahoma last year has to be in Cowboy minds.
As for on the field, several things match up well for OU. Few teams have shown an ability to stop Oklahoma's offense, and Oklahoma State, even though their defense is improved from 2007, can only hope to contain the Sooners. Bradford is remarkably efficient, and the running game has excelled since the Texas game, creating a balance that shocks and awes the competition. Oklahoma has the most flexible offense in the nation, going no-huddle in multiple packages with the same personnel on the field.
On the other side, the OU defense has struggled at times after an injury to middle linebacker Ryan Reynolds, but young players such as Travis Lewis, Austin Box and Dominique Franks have made great strides with each game. Oklahoma State will undoubtedly try to establish the run against the Sooners, but Oklahoma has done well against the opponent's ground games, for the most part. The Sooners will force Zac Robinson to throw on a defense that is one of the best in the nation at getting turnovers. With Oklahoma's offense scoring on a regular basis, it only takes one of those turnovers to end OSU's hopes.
Put all that together, and it spells disaster for the Cowboys.
Why the Cowboys Will Win...
...the 2008 gameThe Oklahoma State Cowboys were always on the cusp of being a great team. Well, in many ways, they've finally gotten there in 2008. After a 5-0 start, the Cowboys got a huge upset win on the road over defending Big 12 north champion Missouri. A couple of weeks later, they gave Texas, a team that beat Oklahoma by 10, a tremendous run for their money before falling by 4, their first loss of the year. A tough loss to Texas Tech aside, Oklahoma State has proven themselves to be a player in the Big 12 south in the near future.
The Cowboys might not have the championship motivations of the Sooners in 2008, but they have plenty in the way of psychological advantage. First, they arguably gave Texas a tougher challenge in Austin than OU did on a neutral field. Second, and perhaps most importantly, the game is in Stillwater, never a friendly place for opponents. The games are always close in Stillwater, it seems, even when the talent differential is great. So with a much more negligible talent differential, call it big advantage OSU.
On the field, Oklahoma State is one of the few teams in the nation that can hang with Oklahoma on the scoreboard. The Cowboys have scored 50 or more 5 times this season and boast a run/pass threat with quarterback Zac Robinson and one of the nation's best runningbacks in Kendall Hunter. Oh, and then there's Dez Bryant, a fantastic athlete that few have been able to cover in 2008. Oklahoma will try to mimic what Texas Tech did to Bryant, keeping a safety over the top at all times, but that should open up big lanes for Hunter against a young and inexperienced OU linebacking crew.
Defensively, OSU has improved each of the last few years, and they've shown a fire and intensity in 2008. Last year, Oklahoma was able to run over the Cowboys, but don't expect that to happen this year. Sam Bradford will get his completions, but expect Oklahoma State to return to what they've done all season (save Texas Tech), and that is tackle well. Neither Missouri nor Texas were able to get downfield much on Oklahoma State, and the Sooners may just have their stiffest test of the season in that regard.
Put all that together, and it spells disaster for the Sooners.
Outcome
Now you have the breakdown of what could happen. How about what will happen...? Here is my prediction...Oklahoma State brings to the 2008 Bedlam game, in my opinion, the best team they've had in recent memory. Their offense is loaded with playmakers and a fantastic offensive line, and their defense is much-improved over previous seasons, tackling well and coming up with big plays against good opponents. On top of that, I expect the emotion to be very high in Stillwater, as it always is for this game.
Therefore, it's very hard to pick against OSU. However, it is also very hard to discount the momentum and confidence OU brings. The offense is almost unstoppable, taking advantage of any breath by the other team to put another 7 on the board. And the opportunity to play in a Big 12 Championship will carry plenty of passion of its own.
The difficulty of playing on the road might keep OU's offense at its lowest output since the Texas game. In the end, though, the much-maligned OU defense will step up when it matters, grabbing a turnover to keep the championship hopes alive.
My prediction: Oklahoma 37, Oklahoma State 31
The Result
Well, for the first time in a few years of predicting Bedlam, I wasn't too far off.It was indeed a close game. The Oklahoma State defense came out strong, getting pressure on Bradford and making tackles in space. The OSU offense, meanwhile, moved the ball nicely, Robinson occasionally scrambling to make plays with his legs and his arm. Early, OU trailed for the first time since the Texas game.
Both teams got big plays. OU had a ball tipped and land in the TD-bound, wide-open hands of Jermaine Gresham. And OSU got a kickoff return TD from Perrish Cox. Early in the 4th quarter, OU led by a narrow 37-34 margin.
From there, though, OU wore OSU down and pulled it out. Bradford kept throwing, putting on a Heisman-worthy show, and the Sooners got a very late TD to win 61-41, a score not indicative of the competitiveness.
As I suspected, turnovers were important. OU didn't have any while OSU had 2. A Robinson interception led to an easy OU TD early while a fumble on a 2 point conversion try gave the Sooners 2 of their own.
Oklahoma emerged victorious, gaining the best road win of any team in the Big 12 this season and advancing to the Big 12 Championship game against Missouri.
