Why the Sooners Will Win...
...the 2009 gameWhat a strange, horrible season it has been for the Oklahoma Sooners. Rarely does it happen that a team is in the National Championship game the year before, just coming up short for the ultimate crown, only to drop so significantly the following year. With a 6-5 record, Oklahoma has had its share of narrow defeats, including four losses by a total of 12 points. However, the week before Bedlam turned into a nightmare scenario as the Sooners looked to have lost their fire completely in a blowout loss at Texas Tech. Injuries have been almost unbelievably devastating as key stars such as Sam Bradford and Jermaine Gresham were lost for the season early on.
Well, how could any of this mean that OU will win?
Let's put it this way. The kind of embarrassment OU suffered last week and overall this year with such a decline are not usual feelings for the folks down in Norman. And you know those players want to rid themselves of any negativity they possibly can. That's quite an emotional motivator.
Even more than that, though, one need only look at history to see why the Sooners will win the 2009 Bedlam game. They just don't lose in Norman. Only twice has another team been able to come out of Norman against a Bob Stoops team with a win. Yes, one of those was Oklahoma State, but that was a long time ago. More recently, the Cowboys have looked like a much different team, and far inferior team, when entering the confines of Memorial Stadium.
As for the x's and o's, look first to Oklahoma's defense. The Texas Tech game aside, this has been one of the strongest units in the country. They put consistent and frenzied pressure on QBs, and their secondary is largely mistake-free and frequently opportunistic with turnovers. Expect likely All-American Gerald McCoy to be in the Cowboys backfield all day and Dominique Franks or Brian Jackson to come up with a key interception. Offensively, the Sooners always seem to pound away at Oklahoma State in Norman. Redshirt freshman Landry Jones will get some pressure removed from his young shoulders as Demarco Murray and Chris Brown take the load.
Put all that together, and it spells disaster for the Cowboys.
Why the Cowboys Will Win...
...the 2009 gameThe Oklahoma State Cowboys have suffered much of the same adversity as Oklahoma, but they have weathered it far better. There was the NCAA suspension of star receiver Dez Bryant, the loss of NFL tight end Brandon Pettigrew, a number of injuries to key players such as Kendall Hunter, and a disappointing home loss to an underdog. Nevertheless, the Cowboys have persevered, putting together one of their best overall seasons and entering Bedlam with a 9-2 record.
What that means is that when speaking of motivation, it's hard to get much more than Oklahoma State. Not only would the Cowboys love to kick a down OU, they want to get to their first ever BCS game, a likely scenario if they can pull off the rare victory in Norman. It would be a huge milestone for the Oklahoma State program, and don't think that is lost on the players. Focus will be strong for the Cowboys, and lining up against a 5-loss Oklahoma team provides a great deal of confidence.
On the field, Oklahoma State comes into the 2009 game with a great deal of balance offensively, something they've had for several seasons. The Sooners can't focus on one thing because Robinson is an experienced, talented passer, and the Cowboys have multiple talents in the running game. Keith Toston has stepped up as a power runner, Kendall Hunter is a game-breaker, and Robinson himself is able to pick up key yards when scrambling. It was that kind of balance that Oklahoma couldn't seem to handle in Lubbock, so expect to see plenty of variety in playcalling and formations.
Of course, defense has always been the rub for Oklahoma State. Maybe not anymore. This year's Cowboys defense is one of the best they've had in years. The secondary is talented, and OSU has held down some talented offenses this season, including the one that just torched OU. Oh yeah... don't forget about Perrish Cox, an explosive guy on special teams that may just provide a key spark or the Cowboys.
Put all that together, and it spells disaster for the Sooners.
Outcome
Now you have the breakdown of what could happen. How about what will happen...? Here is my prediction...What kind of crazy would I be if I picked against the Sooners in Norman, Oklahoma? They never lose at home, and this season they have seemed absolutely dominant there, with point totals of 64, 45, 33, 35, 42 and 65. Not one of their losses has come at home, and they possess the nation's longest home winning streak.
Well, I guess I'm crazy. For the first time in a long time, I'm going with the Cowboys in this one. And for me, it comes down to a couple of things. First, Oklahoma is just in shambles right now. They have not responded well to the adversity they faced this season, and I think there is considerable dejection for a team that played in the National Championship last year and is now looking at the worst season of Stoops' tenure. On the other side is an Oklahoma State team that has BCS sights and took a nice, long break to prepare after that Thursday night game.
Oklahoma is going to score and score plenty. Landry Jones, in the comfort of Memorial Stadium, will throw TD passes, and the running game will work. But I don't think Zac Robinson, who should be fully healed by Saturday, is going to flinch under the Norman pressure. He's a veteran who has been there before. When things break down, he'll pick up key first downs, and the Cowboys will match OU score for score. At the end, OU will be unable to come up with the big play they need, something that has been a trend for them in 2009.
My prediction: Oklahoma State 33, Oklahoma 31
The Result
Well, for 2009 I was right about very little. The game was tight early, a defensive struggle with several fumbles and near-fumbles. Following an excellent punt return by OU's Ryan Broyles, the Sooners fumbled inside the red zone. Later, OU missed a field goal. Luckily for the Sooners, the defense was on a mission.More than making up for the previous week's performance, the OU defense was ferocious all day, not ever giving Robinson and the Cowboys a chance to get going. A 10-0 halftime score left many wondering what tricks Mike Gundy would construct in response.
But whatever OSU tried, Oklahoma countered, and the 2nd half was even tougher sledding for the Cowboys than the first. Meanwhile, the Sooners began running the ball well and saw several big plays from Broyles, including a punt return TD.
By the end, OSU had gained just 109 yards, and the Sooners had a dominating 27-0 shutout to end OSU's BCS hopes.
