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2006 PetroSun Independence Bowl Breakdown

The Match-up

By , About.com Guide

Much of the story surrounding the 2006 PetroSun Independence Bowl is focused on the firing of Alabama Head Coach Mike Shula. With a young quarterback, an offensive line that has given up too many sacks and a serious lack of a running game, it has been a difficult season for the Crimson Tide. Joe Kines, formerly an Assistant Head Coach, has been promoted to Head Coach and is expected to lead the team into the bowl game, but that's still up in the air at this moment.

A program with such a rich tradition is an intriguing job opportunity for many coaches, and a variety of names have popped up in the search. West Virginia's Rich Rodriguez recently turned down the job, and the coaching search must be a distraction for the players. When speaking of a game's intangibles, this has to be a big one here.

On the field, Alabama has struggled at times offensively, but defense hasn't exactly been one of Oklahoma State's strengths in 2006. The Cowboys have performed well at times defensively but have also allowed big rushing and passing performances on multiple occasions this year. The Crimson Tide, while not explosive, have shown the ability to be consistent. If the Oklahoma State defense can't rattle young QB Wilson, he may find Keith Brown or D.J. Hall against the Cowboys corners.

On the other side of the ball, it's strength versus strength. This may be where the game is decided. Oklahoma State has a multi-dimensional and explosive offense with the ability to run and pass effectively, picking up yards in big chunks. But Alabama has shown a somewhat unexpected strength with a stout, opportunistic defense. They can clog up running lanes and force Bobby Reid to go to the air, something he's been so streaky with that Cowboys coaches have occasionally pulled him and replaced him with back-up Zac Robinson for some passing formations.

Another important area to watch is the turnover margin. Oklahoma State has a lot of youth at the skill positions while Alabama's defense has 15 interceptions on the year. They will try to force the Cowboys into mistakes because they know that OSU has an offense that can put up points in a hurry. Alabama's offense is not that way, so if the defense doesn't hold, this one could get ugly for the Crimson Tide.

Returning to the Head Coach discussion, it gives the game an interesting subplot. Oklahoma State can prepare for the team they saw on film in the SEC all season, but this isn't Mike Shula's team anymore. Regardless of who is under the headset for Alabama, the Cowboys must be prepared for that person wanting to make their mark on the proceedings. It's a big unknown for Oklahoma State and an advantage for Alabama if, and this is a BIG if, the Crimson Tide can keep the situation from distracting them during practice this month.

Prediction

It's easy to say, when the ESPN and local news microphones are shoved into your face, that the focus is there, the preparation effective. It is also easy for many college football fans to forget that these are just kids. Anyone who says the coaching search won't effect the team's play is kidding themselves. It will, and I expect Alabama to start a bit sluggish because of it. It may even cost them an early touchdown.

Alabama has played a difficult schedule, though. They have done so in one of the nation's toughest conferences. So the distraction won't last long once the first few helmets start rattling together. They know adversity, and they'll rise against it.

Alabama will attempt to establish a running game that hasn't exactly been the model of consistency. But I think they'll do so and gain a lot of confidence from it. Their defense, however, won't be able to keep Oklahoma State from scoring quickly on an occasion or two. A close game comes down to a late big play from the Cowboys.

Oklahoma State 28, Alabama 20

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